The domestic box office at $2 billion currently this year is dragging 21% behind the same January-April spread last year, and when Universal’s Fall Guy commences the hot moviegoing season this Friday with a hopeful $35M, expect summer to drag some more.
That’s because the lack of product due to the actors’ strike has made a backloaded May through Labor Day frame in what will be lucky —lucky— to hit $3 billion. That’s a $1 billion less than last summer’s $4.09 billion per Comscore and -27% off. More bad news about summer: It’s not going to catch up the year any more against 2023.
Essentially, expect less and hope for more. Remember, no one saw Barbenheimer and Sound of Freedom coming last summer and that trio collectively minted $1.15 billion. If anything, summer 2024 is more about getting moviegoers back into the habit of moviegoing than breaking any records.
Several distribution insiders are still projecting an $8 billion domestic final box office for 2024, $1 billion off from 2023’s $9B. However, instead of summer repping 45% of the total year which was the case in 2023, this summer looks to be around 38%, a share roughly on par with pre-pandemic summers. That means there’s more moviegoing in the off season to go around. I mean, we could see the biggest opening of the year in September (or even summer if you want to extend it past Labor Day to Sept. 6-8) in Warner Bros.’ long-awaited Tim Burton/Michael Keaton sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 2024 A.D. which could very un-shockingly deliver a $100M+ opening, possibly toppling the month’s biggest opener, It, from Warner’s New Line, which debuted to $123.4M. If the Avengers movies could jumpstart summer early in late April, why can’t Beetlejuice Beetlejuice extend it?
No ding against Fall Guy‘s prospects this weekend, and the expectation is that Ryan Gosling of it all will continue to draw women in upcoming weeks, but there’s no way for that movie to make up any ground compared to last year’s first weekend of summer which totaled $160M, 74% of that from the first weekend of Disney/Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.
“On paper, this summer’s lineup has a lot of appeal to moviegoers and though it might not be a financial analysts dream, for movie fans there is much to celebrate,” says Comscore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
Breaking down the months, this May will be absent a $100M-plus opening, neither this coming weekend, nor Memorial Day weekend. There are notable sleeper tentpoles abounding, i.e. 20th Century Studios’ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($50M opening on May 10) and John Krasinski’s Ryan Reynolds all audience imaginary friend feature, If ($40M+ projection on May 17).
However, some are expecting -gulp- a coin toss between Sony’s Garfield and Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s Max Max Fury Road prequel Furiosa in the $30M+ 4-day range over Memorial Day May 24-27. The popular branding of Garfield shouldn’t be underestimated, however, the 2004 movie was an also-ran at the box office with $21.7M opening, and $75.3M domestic final. Both hit three-week tracking this Thursday and in Warner Bros.’ defense, their campaign doesn’t fire up until Furiosa‘s world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival on May 15. Also, Furiosa will have Imax working in its favor. While Anya Taylor-Joy won awards and rave reviews for her turn in Netflix’s Queen’s Gambit during Covid, Furiosa is arguably the first tentpole she’s carrying largely on her shoulders. Mad Max Fury Road also blasted off in Cannes in 2015 and went on to win several Oscars, debuting to $45.4M stateside and doing a 3.3x multiple with a finale of $154.2M. The hope is that Furiosa can emulate that.
One of the four movies which is expected to work this summer, Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 opens over Father’s Day weekend June 14-16. From the hysterical and heartwarming footage shown at CinemaCon, Inside Out 2 returns Pixar to the charm and humor they’re beloved for. The pic could be the first $100M opening of 2024. How’s that? Absence makes the heart grow fonder for Pixar fans: There was a 14-year sequel gap between 2004’s The Incredibles and 2018’s Incredibles 2 with their respective U.S/Canada openings skyrocketing from $70.4M to $182.6M. It’s been nine years since Inside Out back in 2015 which debuted at $90.4M and went on to gross $356.9M; the sky’s the limit with part two here.
The other goodie of June is Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die on June 6 which six-week projection tracking firm Quorum has at a $60M start which is on par with the 3-day of the 2020 movie, Bad Boys for Life ($62.5M).
July contains three of four titles which rep the aorta of the summer box office: Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4 on July 3 (pic will have a 5-day opening, a $100M start over that frame wouldn’t be shocking), Disney/Marvel Studios’ Deadpool & Wolverine on July 26 (many are putting pressure on this movie to be the belle of the ball), and Universal/Warner Bros’ Twisters on July 19. Deadpool & Wolverine reps the first R-rated superhero release for Disney’s MCU, the franchise inherited from the 20th Century Fox merger. Upside: Hugh Jackman is back after dying in Logan and the film has a three-week run in Imax (the longest hold of any title this summer), though the last week will be shared with Lionsgate’s Eli Roth feature take of videogame Borderlands on Aug. 9
Surprises this summer: New Line’s Kevin Costner 3-hour western Horizon “can be a $5M or a $100M movie” per one rival. M. Night Shyamalan can sometimes surprise, so don’t count his Josh Hartnett creepy dad at a young popstar concert feature, Trap, out on Aug. 9 (“It’s a sticky concept,” says one marketing exec). Both Trap and The Watchers on June 7 from Shyamalan’s daughter Ishana Shyamalan rep the first movies during the Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy administration at Warners, those execs luring the filmmakers over from Universal). Also, Paramount’s prequel, A Quiet Place: Day One, from Pig filmmaker Michael Sarnoski, which takes the action to New York City with Lupita Nyong’o, looks to reawaken the John Krasinski born franchise even more on June 28.
The other movie which many think could raise the bar is from NEON; yes NEON: Oz Perkins’ Nicolas Cage and Maika Monroe horror movie Longlegs. There’s been four poster teasers and WTF clips leading up to the main trailer drop which has some intrigued about its potential on July 12. Monroe plays an FBI agent who is assigned to an unsolved serial killer case that takes unexpected turns, revealing evidence of the occult. Harker discovers a personal connection to the killer and must stop him before he strikes again.
“This is an eclectic and exciting summer movie season that unfortunately is not getting a fair shake as low box office expectations (when compared to last year’s outlier ‘Sound of Barbenheimer’ powered $4 billion hit parade) are being misguidedly conflated with the perceived appeal of the films on tap for this most important 18-week corridor for theatres,” emphasizes Dergarabedian.
However, with many motion picture studios still believing in the theatrical distribution model post Covid, and streamers even coming around to it (read Apple’s Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson space race romcom Fly Me to the Moon on July 12 via Sony and Amazon MGM Studios’ Challengers last weekend), studios will only see blockbuster ticket sales this summer if they truly commit loads of marketing dollars and don’t cheap out on P&A spend simply to get a feature quickly into the home entertainment window. It’s about longlegs not short legs, get it?
Said a distribution boss this past weekend, “If we start championing single digit openings at the box office, then this business is really f*cked.”